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The German government and NGOs are overwhelmed. Following serious failings on both the part of the German government and other countries in respect of the current Ebola crisis, the question is whether it is already too late to stop a pandemic. For a country as rich as Germany, the current level of assistance – mere tens of millions – is nothing short of disgraceful or even shameful. The aid provided corresponds to just 0.05% of Germany’s GDP. The initiative announced by the Defence Minister may be a ray of hope, with several thousand German volunteers (both from the armed forces and reservists) already having responded to her call. This deserves a great deal of respect.
However, it is not possible to describe the assistance provided by Germany to the African countries affected as even remotely appropriate or effective – and that’s without going into irritating side issues such as transport planes that were unfit for purpose and amateurish flight planning. The fact that Germany only managed to deliver aid to west Africa on 3 October 2014 is the result of a string of personal and political failures. This leads to the inevitable conclusion that the German government seems to have completely misjudged the humanitarian, social and economic risks posed by an Ebola pandemic (including for its own country), or has simply shown too little empathy for the people suffering and dying in Africa. Various NGOs have long been pleading for an appropriate German response – sadly to no avail.
It is mostly thanks to the President of the United States that many countries now seem to have got their act together. This is the first time ever that the UN Security Council has declared a disease a threat to world peace. The United Nations now estimate that a budget of some 1 billion US dollars is required to effectively combat the epidemic. In the view of Papmehl Management Consulting, this is probably only the amount required to deliver an appropriate emergency response. If Ebola ends up spreading around the world like wildfire, even 10 billion US dollars will probably only be a drop in the ocean. The UN resolution was backed by 130 member states, which in itself could cause problems from the beginning.
This is because the situation requires a highly intelligent, creative and interdisciplinary approach to crisis management (and not convoluted voting procedures). We will not be able to overcome the challenges of today (or tomorrow) with the crisis management instruments of yesterday. In terms of Germany, direct dialogue has revealed that neither the Federal Government nor the Defence Minster nor NGOs (such as Médecins Sans Frontières) have appreciated the following:
Whilst medical and humanitarian assistance are vital, they represent only one side of the coin. Also required is professional, wide-ranging and creative communication on the ground. This should include, for example, general information on the Ebola epidemic, concrete hygiene recommendations and specific guidelines on what to do. It should be accompanied by measures such as short checklists with the most important steps to take. In other words, everything people need to do to limit the spread of Ebola, i.e. the responsible behaviours they can adopt. People in West Africa urgently need professional training and information to help them reach the goals outlined. Furthermore, the same people have to be persuaded and motivated to train and inform others in their local area.
The taskforce approach taken in Liberia is a huge step in the right direction, i.e. the one described here. The main aim is to implement tried-and-tested instruments such as the train-the-trainer approach in West Africa. In the experience of Papmehl Management Consulting, it is necessary to educate at least 5 – 15% of the population in this way. Otherwise, it seems unlikely that the train-the-trainer approach can be successfully implemented, which would also result in the intended goals not being attained. For a country like Sierra Leone alone, this means a huge number of people have to be educated – at least 280,000. It is possible, however, to accompany the initiative with intelligent communication concepts (Internet, Facebook, TV, radio, print, etc.) Due to the state of the information infrastructure in Africa, it may be worth considering traditional but effective approaches, such as market criers (from the Middle Ages). After all, the idea is to find simple and effective solutions on the ground. In addition, curfews (or similar measures) should be imposed in affected areas. Curfews are a pragmatic and highly effective solution, and have already been used in Sierra Leone (passed by Presidential decree).
According to a current Lancaster University study, the likelihood of an Ebola case in Great Britain within the next three weeks stands at 50%. In France, the risk is as high as 75%. However, we do possibly have the first ebola cases in the EU (France, Macedonia, Spain). Nevertheless, the risk of the disease spreading rapidly within the EU is, at least for now, under control; if we can trust statements of the Government. West Africa is home to many Indians and people of Indian descent. Were an infected Indian to travel back home (or to another highly populous region) and infect others on the plane or on the ground (say in an Indian slum), then it would be too late to stop a worldwide pandemic. It is the view of Papmehl Management Consulting that the resulting catastrophe will be of nothing less than biblical proportions. It is currently not even possible to foresee the humanitarian, social and economic impacts of such a catastrophe. As Germans, we will then be left wondering why we responded in such a hesitant, unprofessional and stingy manner.
